Assessing the impact of demographic change and HIV/AIDS in Nigeria
Osunde Omoruyi 1, Cathal O’Donoghue 2
1 University of Benin, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Benin City, Nigeria
2 National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland
Korespondenční autor: Osunde Omoruyi (oosunde@gmail.com)
ISSN 1804-7181 (On-line)
Full verze:
Submitted:13. 2. 2017
Accepted: 15. 5. 2017
Published online: 24. 6. 2017
Summary
This paper examines the impact of demographic change resulting from AIDS deaths on the population of Nigeria. The population of Nigeria is increasing annually at a growth rate of 3.2% and also with the increase in prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS. The purpose of this paper is to use a demographic dynamic microsimulation method to look at the impact of death resulting from AIDS given the fact that demographic variables such as fertility, mortality, migration and life expectancy influence population growth rate significantly. In order to determine the impact of birth and death rates resulting from HIV/AIDS and other causes on the population structure over time, a dynamic microsimulation model is used to capture these demographic trends. Dynamic microsimulation models focus on the simulation of behaviour over time. Micro-units are dynamically aged according to a life-cycle behavioural model. Each year individuals are born, become educated, leave home, obtain employment, cohabit and marry, have children, sometimes divorce, and die. Whenever one of these demographic events occurs in a given period, it affects the likelihood of subsequent events happening. From the result we observed that the impact of HIV/AIDS on the population is considerable. It is about 2% under the without HIV/AIDS and with HIV/AIDS scenarios. We also observed an increase in the number of women aged in their 30s giving birth and an increase in the dependency ratio of the old people to 4.2% by 2015. Finally we observed no significant change among the working age population.
Keywords: health; birth; demographics; HIV/AIDS; Nigeria
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